Researchers say they have formula for marital success

The secret to a successful marriage can be found in a mathematicalformula, according to researchers.

Researchers at the University of Washington have devised twoformulas that they say allows them to predict, with a 94 percentsuccess rate, whether a new marriage will last. And all it takes is a15-minute interview.

The formulas used to detect newlywed joy or disaster were publiclypresented for the first time this week by mathematician Dr. JamesMurray, who spoke at the Mathematical Biology Conference at DundeeUniversity in Scotland.

The presentation was based on a 10-year study of 700 Americancouples conducted by Murray and psychologist John Gottman, both fromthe Seattle university.

"Positive things can be taken from [the formula]. It points outwhy some people are having problems and can show what action has tobe taken to save the marriage," Murray said.

All the couples who participated in the experiment were initiallyobserved by researchers during a 15-minute conversation shortly afterthey were married in the early 1990s.

Participants were asked to discuss contentious marital issues,such as money, sex or children. The couple's ability to discuss theissue was evaluated according to a mathematical scale that awardedpositive points for good signals and negative points for bad signals.

Bad signals included rolling of the eyes, criticism or mockery ofone's partner, as well as displays of coldness and negativity.Positive signs included displays of humor, positive vocal tone,smiles and affectionate gestures.

"We used an accepted psychological scoring system to award thempoints, such as minus three for scorn and plus two for humor," Murraysaid. "Then we put their points on a graph and by converting theminto algebraic terms were able to make our divorce predictions.

"We didn't tell the volunteers, of course. ... Telling a coupletheir marriage is going to fail is not what they want to hear."

The results of the observations were used to develop an equationfor both husbands and wives, and each couple was contacted every twoyears to ascertain the state of their marriage. Researchers say theywere able to predict the success or failure of each couple with anaccuracy of almost 94 percent.

Other variables were taken into account during the experiment inorder to determine a couple's compatibility, Murray said, includingthe effect an individual's contribution to the conversation had onthe mood of his or her spouse.

"The key thing that comes out of it is that we have been able tocalculate how people interact," Murray said.

"For example, the wife might be a conflict avoider and the husbandmight be volatile. That marriage would not survive."

Our society is marriage-obsessed and naturally inclined to believein marital perfection, said Julie Rak, an English professor andpopular culture expert at the University of Alberta.

"We learn from a very early age that there there is only oneperson in the world for us, which is mathematically ridiculous," Raksaid. "Marriage is not like that and people are always notpredictable and change over time."

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